July
27, 2014
By
Saeed Qureshi
The ISIS (The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria)
an army of the Sunni Muslim Jihadists comprising some 4000 warriors has
overwhelmed the militarily powerful Shia regimes in Iraq and Syria in a
relatively short span of time. Correspondingly they pose a dire threat to Iran
that professes Shia brand of Islam and supports both Iraqi and Syrian incumbent
regimes.
With the establishment of the caliphate under
a ferocious, fanatic Sunni Jihadist Al Baghdadi, the large scale carnage in
subsequent times in two states of Iraq and Syria cannot be ruled out. Already
one can see the spine-chilling and barbarous style of summary killing and
beheading of the soldiers caught in combats.
The Christians in these beleaguered and strife
torn regions have been ordered by ISIS to leave or to embrace Islam. One cannot
believe that this religious extremism laced with limitless savagery to the
human beings can resurface in a modern world resplendent with galore of human
rights and liberties.
But if dispassionately analyzed in the
hindsight of history, one would find out that these lands have always remained
battlefields between Sunnis and Shias alternating the mutual bouts of ethnic cleaning
and annihilation. With the unbridgeable sectarian divide only a ruthless tyrant
like Saddam Hussain of Iraq or Hafez- al-Asad and his son Bashar-Al- Asad could
hold the people in check.
Starting for Omayyad dynasty to Ottoman Empire
and to later dynasties we find it was always brutal repression that kept these
areas, inhabited by volatile people with colliding faiths and idiosyncrasies,
under a semblance of order and control. The last of such ruthless tyrant was
Saddam Hussain in Iraq who was hard on Shias and with extreme repression he
maintained the geographical and people’s unity for over two decades.
His fall at the hands of allied forces led by
United States has unleashed another spell of democratic chauvinism of the Shia
regime under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of “Shiite United Iraqi Alliance since
May 2006, directed at their majority Sunni population, In Syria first the heartless butcher Hafiz al-Asad
and later his equally merciless son Bashar al Asad professing Shia Alawite
faith have been dealing their Sunni subjects with hideous ferocity since March
1971. They follow the Alawite Islam a
branch of the Twelver school
of Shia Islam.
The sudden spurt of ISIS (also known as ISIL)
is a frightening dimension in the chaotic terrain of the Middle East. These Sunni
Jihadists can be equated with Taliban of Pakistan and Afghanistan who pose constant
threat to these two countries with their incessant suicide bombing and terrorist’s
attacks for over a decade. The Taliban also want to revive the defunct
caliphate with Sunni faith.
They can also be equated with Kharjis who
surrounded Medina and killed the third Muslim caliph Osman in 661. The
assassins (Nizari Shia Persians) are another group in the early
Islamic history that terrorized and killed the Persian, Abbasid, Seljuk,
and Christian Crusader members of the government for political and
religious reasons.
They ISIS has proclaimed caliphate on 29 June
2014, installing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as its caliph in Levant region. The
Levant territories are Jordan, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Cyprus, and a part
of southern Turkey.
It is said that ISIS has the Saudi backing. If
Saudi Arabia is under the impression that she would be immune from the
onslaughts of these latter-day crusaders and enforcer of Khilafat then it is a terrible
misconception. If the autocratic regimes in Iraq and Syria are being brought
under the canopy of caliphate then this principle is equally valid in case of
Saudi Arabia which is royal family dynasty and therefore in liable to be converted
into caliphate.
How the West is going to deal with emergence
of ISIS would be unfolded in the coming days. If the ISIS has taken center
stage in Iraq and Syria with the aid and abetment of the western powers most
notably the United States then no questions asked. The concern that could accrue
to Western countries is that Christians have been ordered by ISIS to leave or
pay the Islamic tax to stay.
This ISIS’ declaration of orthodox Islamic
caliphate and expulsion of Christians from the occupied territories could invoke the crusading passion of
Christians and thus strings could also be pulled to debilitate ISIS in the
longer run and replace it with secular regimes sympathetic towards the west and
serve as protégé like Egypt. Would that trigger the clash of civilizations as
extensively being talked for quite some time about in the Western societies?
Professor Huntington is one of the prominent proponents of this doctrine.
The underlying objective of the West could be
to demolish the Shia regimes in Iraq and Syria first and then deal with ISIS
with military might annihilating them as they did with the al-Qaida. The end of Shia regimes in Iraq and Syria could
also dilute or end the massive influence of Iran in Syria and Iraq.
If ISIS does not touch or challenge the Sunni
dynasties in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar then mot of Arab peninsula would
come under the sway of Sunni Islam. Turkey a relatively secular and detached
country from this scheme of things would be pacified with the advent of the
Sunnis in the Middle East.
So the Middle East at the moment is in a boiling
pot and would remain so for quite some time entailing more gruesome
confrontations between the rival sects and races. Yet there is another glaring
possibility that Syria and Iraq dismember into various units. For instance Iraq
is being projected to be bifurcated into three independent portions, one for
Shias, the second for the Kurds and the third for the Sunnis. This possibility
if translated into practicality can be a lasting solution for the centuries old
sectarian and ethnic feuds.
But what is the guarantee that these three independent
blocs would remain at peace with each other and this division would prove to be
a lasting solution of a perennially bizarre situation and persistent chaos that
has kept on fire the stability and peace in this part of the world for several
centuries.
Nevertheless let us watch how the developments
unfold and how the stakeholders and the actual combatants move ahead. Let us
also watch if ISIS would finally prevail and the caliphate would stay on or
checked and challenged by the contenders: both Shias and Christians.