March 7, 2016
By Saeed Qureshi
Lately it appears that Trump support within the Republican Party (GOP) is waning. Mitt Romney and John McCain have come out in the open to denounce him as incompetent and unsuitable to become the president of the United States. Mitt Romney assails him as being dangerous for the democracy.
It looks the Republican Party and Donald Trump are not on the same page and this divergence may not be favorable to Trump in winning the nomination from the Republican Party. The Republican Party seems to be afflicted with internal dissensions and reservations about Trump’s nomination.
Lately the money has started pouring in to support the other two Republican competitors of Trump, namely Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio by way of massive media advertisements. In the latest state elections Ted won in two states of Main and Kansas equaling Trump’s victories in Louisiana and Kentucky. The situation would further clear up in the coming debates and further elections in the remaining majority states and caucuses.
The Senior Republican leadership, on the whole, didn’t express much of support to Donald Trump. It is obvious that the Republican stalwarts are joining hands to checkmate and derail the Trump’s resounding march in capturing more states and enhancing his super delegates count.
Presently Hillary Clinton the lead democratic contender is on top with 1130 delegates. She needs 2382 to be become eligible for nomination. Bernie Sanders is lagging behind her with 499 delegates. On the Republican front Trump has bagged 384 delegates and he needs altogether 1237 to be the winner for the nomination. Tend Cruz who has emerged all of sudden from behind has 300 delegates so far.
Donald Trump is an interesting yet a perplexing phenomenon on the American political turf. Despite his queer outbursts his acceptance and popularity has been ballooning by the day. His rhetoric is weird but being accepted by a sizable majority as evidenced by his stunning victories in state and primary elections. His Anti Muslim rhetoric is most appealing to the conservative sections of the society on religious and racial grounds.
He looks like a roller coaster advancing ferociously on the political turf unmindful of his commitments and slogans which he might not be able to translate into their actual application. His fiery pronouncements cut across the fabric of pluralism and the cultural diversity that is the hallmark of the American society. He hardly cares and the more he emphasizes his anti-immigration, anti Muslim stance and repealing the Obama administration reforms, the more goes up his popularity graph.
He spoke against the Latino population yet a chunk of his supporters come from this migrant community. Seemingly he doesn’t hold a much benign opinion about the black communities. However, the black or Afro - Americans too voluminously support him.
The current total population of USA is 308 million, the whites including the Hispanic or Latinos is around 77 %( 62 % actual whites). Black 12 %, Asians 4.7 %, native Indians 1.3 % and other races are around 9 %.
The 82 per cent eligible voters will be divided between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in case both reach the pinnacle. Even if the migrants don’t vote for Donald for obvious reasons, it is not going to affect the vote bank of either candidate in a big way, However the Latinos and black votes can make a difference for both the prospective presidential candidates.
The presence of the large chanting crowds in the election rallies look impressive but only up to the extent of getting the nomination of their respective parties. However, the final contest for presidency will make all the difference. Let us suppose that the white votes are equally divided between Hillary and Trump.
It is in this scenario that the black and Asian and other races would matter whose number is between 22 to 25 per cent. If more white population votes for Trump he may win even if a small percentage votes of the minorities votes are cast in his favor. But if white votes are equally poised and minority votes tilt towards Hillary she may win. It can be surmised that minority votes will go more in favor of Hillary than trump.
From now until November 8(the election day) this year there would be many turns and twists for both the candidates. While Hillary’s nomination from her party is taken for granted, Trump has to still face his rivals (Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio) for his final choice as the Republican candidate.
It should be kept in mind that the election of the President and Vice President of the United States is an indirect vote in which citizens cast ballots for a slate of members of the U.S. Electoral College. These electors cast direct votes for the President and Vice President. If both votes result in an absolute majority, the election is complete.