July 15, 2015
By Saeed Qureshi
Iran’s nuclear deal with P5+1 group is
repugnant to both Saudi Arabia and Israel. But mercifully it has finally come
through. Saudi Arabia is opposed to this deal because Iran is her religious and
regional contender in the Middle East. Contrary to Saudi Arabia’s Sunni Islam,
Iran professes Shia faith and both are phenomenally divergent.
Iran is also an economic rival of Saudi
dynasty for its nearly matching oil output. Israel is bitterly averse to this
deal because rightly or wrongly it considers Iran as a potent threat to her
security. Israel and Saudis have common perception and policy towards Iran
though for different reasons.
If Saudis have to choose friendship between Iran
and Israel they will go for Israel. Such is the level of contention and hostility
between two Islamic states which in fact is a spillover of the past fourteen
centuries.
Since 2006, Iran due to its nuclear program has
remained under severe embargoes and harsh sanctions that have nearly crippled
its economy in all these 9 years. Presumably during this time Iran has attained
the level of expertise needed for making a nuclear bomb which she may not
fabricate for obvious reasons.
But that blueprint would remain preserved
under a thick layer of secrecy as long as Iran doesn’t feel any major threat to
its security. My hunch is that Iran could fabricate bomb within the shortest
period of time which it cannot use as after Hiroshima and Nagasaki no country
has ever used the atomic weapons even in the worst of conditions.
So the world is safe even if Iran possesses
the know how to make a crude bomb because
there are many other countries that in fact have that capability many times
more than Iran. For Iran, such device would remain simply a symbol of self-assuring
prestige and protection like other countries with nuclear potential such as
India and Pakistan.
The JCPOA (The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) was
inked in the city of Vienna (Austria) on 14
July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—United States, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom—plus Germany and the European
Union). The agreement lifts a package of stifling
sanctions on Iran in return for drastically curtailing her ongoing nuclear
development program.
Briefly, the
agreement stipulates that Iran will reduce its current stockpile of
low-enriched uranium by 98 percent, reduce by two third of its centrifuges and curtail enriching uranium to 3.67%,
enough for civilian nuclear power and
research and not for making a nuclear weapon.
Iran's Fordow facility will be made dysfunctional with stoppage of any new uranium-enrichment facilities at
that location for fifteen years. However Iran can continue research and development work on enrichment only at the Natanz facility for
eight years.The fulfillment of these conditions would be
closely watched by IAEC and in case of violation the sanctions would be
re-imposed for which the term used is “snap back”.
Understandably the Republicans in United
States and Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu are extremely frustrated over
this landmark agreement finalized after 20 months of intensive negotiations
between the parties. President Obama has achieved another laurel for himself as
but for his consistent support this landmark accord would not have seen the
light of the day.
This agreement would benefit Iran in a huge
way. Yet she will have to wait for the rest of the current year for a full
blown implementation and lifting of sanctions. The most outstanding fallout
would be that Iran’s isolation spanning over a decade would be over.
In the meantime Iran can warm herself for
resumption of its economic and
diplomatic relations with many countries which were vary of not going near it because of Iran being projected as some kind of Pariah
state thanks to the thundering propaganda of Israel, the anti Iran Lobbyists in
United States as well as Saudis and their cohorts.
As pointed out above, as a matter of fact Iran
doesn’t need a nuclear bomb and even it could make one it would be impossible
for her to use. And now when it has been given a limited mandate to pursue its
research and enrichment of uranium, it would be pacified as this mandate
carries the IAEC and world powers ascent.
Because of shrunken oil sale and limited business
opportunities all these years, Iran has suffered a colossal backlash in
economic terms. Now after the melting of ice, she would give precedent to full
bloom promotion of trade and mutual interactions to catch up with the financial
losses it had suffered on account of embargoes on free trade.
Iran has 10 percent
of global oil reserves and 18
percent of natural gas reserves. The oil
and gas once again coming to the international markets openly, the prices of
both these commodities will reasonably scale down. With an unchained Iran, the super
duper enterprises of oil and gas are already on the lookout of resuming the commercial
links with that country.
For instance senior executives from oil giants “Royal Dutch Shell, Total
S.A, and Eni met with the Iranian oil minister in Vienna in June, the
month before the announcement of JCPOA to explore business opportunities in
Iran”.
Iran can be
extremely useful for warring parties fighting against the ISIS in Middle East
and Taliban in Afghanistan and may be able to turn the tide in favor of Syria
and Iraq. Iran has a trained army of over million fighters and that asset can
be used by Unites states and other anti-ISIS and al-Qaida militants to bring
peace by defeating the radical militants.
It is to be
seen if Iran would be willing to join the fray and utilize its military
potential at the behest of Syria, United States and other anti ISIS warring
groups.
Nevertheless,
with Iran joining the rest of the international community without fetters in an
historic and watershed development as it brings back a very important country
into the fold of the world community with dignity and honor.
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