August 26, 2017
By Saeed Qureshi
If the relations
between USA and Pakistan take a downturn, then this time it would be America
which will be more at disadvantage than Pakistan. It should be understood that President Trumps’
threat to Pakistan and denunciation for harboring terrorism is not only
unrealistic but a blessing in disguise for Pakistan. In that situation Pakistan
would be free to form a regional alliance with Russia, China, Iran and other
friendly countries in the region which would be much more useful than what it
has been maintaining with the USA all these years.
Pakistan is one
state which helped America in fighting Taliban and Al-Qaida in Afghanistan for
15 years (2001-2016). If America reignites the same war now against the ISIS
and some Taliban factions then it will have to fight that war alone. It will
have to use the territory of the Central Asian states for transportation of
army and military hardware which Russia is not going to allow.
Is president Trump
oblivious of the resounding fact that but for Pakistan’s support USA could have
been squarely defeated and indeed humiliated in Afghanistan. Is he aware that
since the inception of the first civil war (1979-1989) in Afghanistan against
Soviet Union, Pakistan is hosting four million refugees whose children have now
also grown up and well settled in Pakistan? As a result, Pakistan immensely
suffered economically and regionally due to the
military alliance
with USA. Of late, it was with the help of Pakistan that the Navy Seals were
able to reach Osama Bin Laden and kill him.
It should be
understood that the American sponsored war in Afghanistan (2001-2017) is different from the Mujahideen’s war
against the Soviet Union which lasted
from December 1979 to February 1989. In the first war the
Insurgent groups known as the Mujahideen fought
against the Soviet Army and the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan.
In that bloody war around 562,000 to
2,000,000 civilians were killed and millions of Afghans fled the country as
refugees mostly to Pakistan and Iran.
Ever since Pakistan is hosting millions of Afghan refugees. The children of
those Afghan refugees are now settled in Pakistan.
President Trump
should understand that now is not the time which was there three decades ago. In
that Pakistan was coerced to join the American military onslaught in Afghanistan
to annihilate Taliban as well as root out Russian influence in that country. Later
Russia again intervened in that war in 2007.
China and Russia,
Saudi Arabia and several other countries have negated Trump’ s characterization
of Pakistan harboring terrorist. They have eulogized Pakistan and acknowledged
that Pakistan’s role and sacrifices in Afghanistan were colossal. Any effort to
sideline Pakistan and bring it under pressure and branding it as a state
sponsoring terrorism is negation of facts and history. Such an attitude towards
Pakistan would boomerang against USA and might result in further chaos in Afghanistan. As already stated This time isolating
Pakistan internationally and reigniting war in Afghanistan would not be
favorable to the United States.
The uncalled-for anti-Pakistan
statement and threat by president Trump perhaps has two motives. One is to detract
the American people from his domestic failures and his diminishing image. He is reviving the Bush era adventurism and
thus trying to win the support of the pro-war Americans. It is a sordid attempt
of finding scape-goats by raising war cries and using tough language against an
all-time friendly country Pakistan.
It is also possible
that anti- Pakistan rhetoric of Trump is aimed at bolstering and pleasing India
which is the irreconcilable foe of Pakistan. It is a known fact that President
Trump has Indian business partners and they remain in contact with him. Trump
has showered praise and plaudits on India which ostensibly is to belittle Pakistan.
Yet India cannot
help USA to wage another war in Afghanistan and prevail. The driving reason is
that India doesn’t have direct territorial contacts or routes with Afghanistan like
Pakistan or Iran have. As such any alliance or understanding between India and
America for war efforts against Taliban, ISIS or ISIL is not going to
materialize.
For the first time,
the Pakistan government and both the houses of the parliament (Senate and
National Assembly) have taken a right and courageous stand in response to
Trump’s denunciation of Pakistan and issuing of warnings. They have rejected
the insinuation of president Trump and pledged not to be browbeaten by the
American president’s false alarm bells.
USA wants to enter Afghanistan
again and fight which the American president and defense secretary claim to win
and prevail. It should be understood
that America cannot succeed in driving Taliban, ISIS and other religious warriors
out of Afghanistan without logistic and other support from Pakistan. Losing Pakistan’s
friendship would be more counterproductive for USA as she would lose a trusted
ally and friend which brought victory to America in Afghanistan. In that
situation, Pakistan will not allow a hostile America to use her territory in
order to enter Afghanistan.
Iran also, for
obvious reasons, wouldn’t place her routes and land at the disposal of the
American army to enter Afghanistan and restart a war against their perceived
enemy. Besides America will have to open its financial coffers once again which
might cause an adverse economic backlash in USA.
Let us remember
that such threats have been issued by president Trump earlier against North
Korea by using the slang of “Fire and Fury” which means bombing North Korean and
destroying her missile installations. The retort from North Korean president Kim
Jong Un was more sarcastic and defying in which he ignored president Trump’s
ultimatum and utterances by describing those as a ‘load of nonsense’. Even thereafter,
North Korea tested missile, one of which has the capacity to reach American
mainland. Guam Island being used as a military base by USA is just within the
reach of North Korean range of missiles.
All said and done,
this statement about Pakistan being a sponsor of terrorism and host to
militants could be another stray outpouring of President Trump. He is in the
habit of issuing tough and thoughtless ultimatums and statements but later
leaves those in lurch. His announcement to exit from the G-20, erecting a wall
between America and Mexico and showering fire and fury on North Korea are
meaningless and counterproductive in fostering the American goodwill abroad.
President Trump has
been at loggerheads with the American press, the immigrants, the minority communities
and all those who somehow oppose him politically from the Republican or the Democratic
Party. It should be instructive for Trump to be sober, less reactive and instead
be diplomatic than being ready to throw punches at friend and foes.
Keeping in view his
mercurial temperament, knee jerk reaction, unguarded statements and unpredictable
behavior, the Senate majority leader Mitch MacDonnell in a private conversation,
has said that he was doubtful if president Trump could retain his presidency.
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