Thursday, March 10, 2016
March 7, 2016
By Saeed Qureshi
Lately it appears that Trump support within the Republican Party (GOP) is waning. Mitt Romney and John McCain have come out in the open to denounce him as incompetent and unsuitable to become the president of the United States. Mitt Romney assails him as being dangerous for the democracy.
It looks the Republican Party and Donald Trump are not on the same page and this divergence may not be favorable to Trump in winning the nomination from the Republican Party. The Republican Party seems to be afflicted with internal dissensions and reservations about Trump’s nomination.
Lately the money has started pouring in to support the other two Republican competitors of Trump, namely Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio by way of massive media advertisements. In the latest state elections Ted won in two states of Main and Kansas equaling Trump’s victories in Louisiana and Kentucky. The situation would further clear up in the coming debates and further elections in the remaining majority states and caucuses.
The Senior Republican leadership, on the whole, didn’t express much of support to Donald Trump. It is obvious that the Republican stalwarts are joining hands to checkmate and derail the Trump’s resounding march in capturing more states and enhancing his super delegates count.
Presently Hillary Clinton the lead democratic contender is on top with 1130 delegates. She needs 2382 to be become eligible for nomination. Bernie Sanders is lagging behind her with 499 delegates. On the Republican front Trump has bagged 384 delegates and he needs altogether 1237 to be the winner for the nomination. Tend Cruz who has emerged all of sudden from behind has 300 delegates so far.
Donald Trump is an interesting yet a perplexing phenomenon on the American political turf. Despite his queer outbursts his acceptance and popularity has been ballooning by the day. His rhetoric is weird but being accepted by a sizable majority as evidenced by his stunning victories in state and primary elections. His Anti Muslim rhetoric is most appealing to the conservative sections of the society on religious and racial grounds.
He looks like a roller coaster advancing ferociously on the political turf unmindful of his commitments and slogans which he might not be able to translate into their actual application. His fiery pronouncements cut across the fabric of pluralism and the cultural diversity that is the hallmark of the American society. He hardly cares and the more he emphasizes his anti-immigration, anti Muslim stance and repealing the Obama administration reforms, the more goes up his popularity graph.
He spoke against the Latino population yet a chunk of his supporters come from this migrant community. Seemingly he doesn’t hold a much benign opinion about the black communities. However, the black or Afro - Americans too voluminously support him.
The current total population of USA is 308 million, the whites including the Hispanic or Latinos is around 77 %( 62 % actual whites). Black 12 %, Asians 4.7 %, native Indians 1.3 % and other races are around 9 %.
The 82 per cent eligible voters will be divided between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in case both reach the pinnacle. Even if the migrants don’t vote for Donald for obvious reasons, it is not going to affect the vote bank of either candidate in a big way, However the Latinos and black votes can make a difference for both the prospective presidential candidates.
The presence of the large chanting crowds in the election rallies look impressive but only up to the extent of getting the nomination of their respective parties. However, the final contest for presidency will make all the difference. Let us suppose that the white votes are equally divided between Hillary and Trump.
It is in this scenario that the black and Asian and other races would matter whose number is between 22 to 25 per cent. If more white population votes for Trump he may win even if a small percentage votes of the minorities votes are cast in his favor. But if white votes are equally poised and minority votes tilt towards Hillary she may win. It can be surmised that minority votes will go more in favor of Hillary than trump.
From now until November 8(the election day) this year there would be many turns and twists for both the candidates. While Hillary’s nomination from her party is taken for granted, Trump has to still face his rivals (Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio) for his final choice as the Republican candidate.
It should be kept in mind that the election of the President and Vice President of the United States is an indirect vote in which citizens cast ballots for a slate of members of the U.S. Electoral College. These electors cast direct votes for the President and Vice President. If both votes result in an absolute majority, the election is complete.
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
February 26, 2016
By Saeed Qureshi
I am not aware about the character, personality and idiosyncrasies of the previous Presidents of the United States. But certainly we can figure out that the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has a peculiar personality which brooks no compassion, modesty or restraint in dishing out his policies and plans that he would implement if he becomes the president of the United States.
Yet he is getting popular by the day and his rallies are huge by numbers. He is admired by a sizable chunk of the population. The people attend his rallies in huge numbers and enjoy his speeches that carry jeers, racial and religious slurs, nasty personal attacks and rebukes.
If he wins the Republican nomination and finally wins the presidency also, America might become a pariah state and denuded of its liberalism, pluralism, an abode of the profusion and glare of human rights and equality, individual freedom and even its status of being the world leader.
His exudes an irritable disposition and shuns contradictions and divergence to his weird views and perceptions. In his largely attended public rallies and town hall meetings, he vociferously displays his shortness of temper and unbridled fit of anger. He takes leave of the discretion and sobriety to such an extent that he wanted to punch protester in one of his rallies.
He is against the Muslims living in the United States and wants to put surveillance on their activities. In one of his earlier statements he announced monitoring and closing the mosques. He is against the womenfolk branding them as fat pigs etc. He is against the Latino population in United States and wants to stop their inflow by erecting a 30 feet high expensive barrier on the borders between Mexico and the United States.
He denounces China and Japan, the leading trade partners of America on the accusation of grabbing billions of dollars from America each year. He would stop the inflow of the Syrian immigrants to United States who are the most hapless and distressed people fleeing from a devastating civil war. Trump doesn’t seem to believe in the milk of human kindness. He blows hot and cold at the same time and looks freakish by the convoluted contours of his face and body.
He has pledged to quash and nullify all the far reaching programs and decisions that were accomplished and implemented during president Obama’s two terms as president. Some of these watershed acts are Obama Medicare, closing of Guantanamo prison, reestablishing diplomatic relations between Cuba and USA and lifting of embargoes on Iran.
It seems that he is becoming a liability even for the Republican Party, though known as the conservative and rightist political party. Yet the GOP would not go along the plans and measures that Trump which wants to enforce as the president o the United States. Now who has the audacity and even commonsense to call the Vatican Pope as “not a Christian”?
His counterparts and contenders within the Republican Party are opposing him for his wild dreams and outlandish proclamations which in fact would isolate America from most of the world at large. With his crazy mindset he may even go at war against the Islamic states particularly Iran to indirectly lend a support to Israel.
It would be simply a mayhem and kind of Armageddon prophesied in scriptures. No one can guess at the moment if he would be Antichrist or supporter of Christ. Keeping in view his aggressive disposition he would rather be an Antichrist for announcing warfare and use of brute military force against countries that he perceives as hostile.
In the CNN GOP Republican presidential debate at Houston( February 25) both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz gave a hard time and tough drubbing to Trump who seemed to be embarrassed for the first time in his debate and town hall meetings.
It looks that his chances of reaching the pinnacle and getting the nomination of the Republican Party are getting slimmer. Both Cruz and Rubio quoted instances of Tax fraud by Donald Trump and his unfair treatment to the workers hired by him from time to time. Rubio particularly mentioned Polish workers who were grievously wronged by Trump in various ways.
There is no doubt that Hillary is going to win the Democratic nomination as his contenders are not as versatile, effective and articulate as he has been in all her debates and speeches. So far the primary results show Hillary winning 505 delegates. In comparison Donald has only 8 delegates. Donald has none of super delegates so far .
But Hillary has 453 super delegates thus far. Donald won in three states of New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada and lost in Iowa. Hillary won two out of three. She won in New Hampshire and Nevada but lost in New Hampshire.
One can hazard a guess that because of his unguarded insolence, wayward declarations and mindless plans Donald has lost much of the ground despite early achievements. Even the Evangelists are now turning to both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.
It is possible that one of these two youthful Republicans win the nomination although they are far behind as far numbers in having enough delegates and super delegates and victories in state elections are concerned. In comparison to Trump’s 82 delegates, Ted has 17 and Rubio 16.
Since there are many states left no one can presage who would be the final Republican nominee to face the democratic rival who by all indications is going to be Madam Hillary Clinton.